A up-to-date narrative is emerging among seasoned cryptocurrency analysts who are now predicting the arrival of the industry’s first-ever secular bear market. This prediction suggests that a radical transformation could occur, characterized by a prolonged decline that could potentially last for years, deviating from the relatively short-term cycles typically associated with the cryptocurrency market.

First-Ever Secular Crypto Bear Market

The conversation about this change was it sparked via a query to CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto), a well-known crypto analyst with 417,000 followers on X, who was asked about the impact of celebrities and sports stars entering the crypto space with their own coin offerings. Responding to concerns that this trend could dilute the purity and utility of cryptocurrencies, @CredibleCrypto offered a sturdy view on the future trajectory of the market.

“Most of this stuff will be wiped out in the next bear market in my opinion. Our first secular bear market in this space since the beginning. The .com crypto crash – where 99% of the junk gets wiped out and never comes back, while the FAANG cryptocurrencies emerge from the other side and thrive for the next few decades (.com crypto boom),” @CredibleCrypto noted.

This dot-com bubble analogy posits that, just as the bursting of a bubble evaporated weaker dot-com stocks while solidifying the position of tech giants, a secular cryptocurrency market could similarly purge smaller, speculative projects and pave the way for stronger projects to dominate.

Adding to the discussion, @astronomer_zero, another crypto analyst, highlighted the typical market psychology that precedes such declines. He noted, “Yes, the party will end soon. After we first go into euphoria, because markets almost never crash due to fear. And a big crash requires a lot of euphoria. “A bubble can’t burst if it doesn’t exist.” Just so we can have a little more of a taste of celebrity greed/mainstream adoption bubble, attracting more liquidity to fuel the decline. Secular bear market starts in 2026/27.”

Interestingly, the S&P 500 is already heading towards a “top-out” scenario. As another analyst noted, the S&P 500 is already showing a sharper angle than it did in 2007 before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The astronomer explained, “That’s true and this move is part of the final stages. But this is SPX. I’ve been talking about SPX being uncorrelated to BTC and BTC evolving into a safe haven asset faster than the general public expects.”
Calls for a US recession and global financial market collapse are growing louder on the X platform.

One of the most ardent proponents of this theory is Henrik Zeberg, chief macroeconomist at Swissblock. He suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preventive measures to stave off a recession through massive liquidity injections could drive major indices to up-to-date highs.

Specifically, Zeberg predicted that the S&P 500 would reach between 6,100 and 6,300 points, the Nasdaq would rise to between 24,000 and 25,000 points, the Dow Jones would rise to around 45,000 points, and bitcoin would peak between $115,000 and $120,000 before a recession hits around December 2024.

The concept of a secular bear market, while up-to-date to the cryptocurrency market, has historical precedents in conventional financial markets. Such periods are characterized by a downward trend in asset prices over extended periods, often spanning multiple economic cycles. Unlike cyclical bear markets, which are relatively short-lived and followed by rapid recoveries, secular bear markets exhibit extended stagnation or decline, interrupted by occasional partial recoveries that do not return to previous highs.

The most celebrated examples of secular bear markets are the Great Depression (1929-1942) and the dot-com bubble burst (2000-2013). After the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, US stock markets, especially technology indices such as the NASDAQ, experienced a significant decline. The NASDAQ did not regain its 2000 peak levels until 2015, indicating a long period of recovery.

At the time of going to press, the price of Bitcoin was $57,188.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com