U.Today – In a recent article, Arthur Hayes painted a bleak outlook for , suggesting that in the worst-case scenario, it could gradually decline to the $50,000 level. The previously bullish Hayes is now modifying his forecast, saying the market will remain bearish in the compact term, particularly through the end of September.
He predicts Bitcoin will rise only modestly over that time, while altcoins are likely to see much steeper declines. His logic is based on macroeconomic elements such as the U.S. government’s spending patterns and the Federal Reserve’s futile tightening policy. According to Hayes, as the 10-year Treasury yield approaches a risky 5% level, the bond market will tighten conditions — something the Fed has failed to do.
This change could put an end to the current bull market and raise questions about the balance sheets of smaller banks, which would put more pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. It’s worth noting that Hayes still maintains a long-term bullish outlook. He hasn’t sold all of his holdings and may even buy more of a few different cryptocurrencies.
His future outlook is based on the belief that eventually the US Treasury General Account (TGA) will be reduced or quantitative easing (QE) will be reintroduced as a means of government intervention in markets to escalate liquidity.
According to Hayes, these moves will boost Bitcoin’s value in the long run. However, his short-term outlook is pretty dire. Bitcoin is expected to continue its gradual decline, with the $50,000 threshold being a key level to watch out for.
Hayes believes that Bitcoin will only fall in price until intervention begins, which is likely to happen in tardy September, while altcoins could fall even further. While it could be argued that Bitcoin’s volatility and market dynamics often contradict such predictions, Hayes makes a compelling case for his cynical short-term outlook.
The price of cryptocurrencies is influenced by many factors, many of which are subject to sudden changes. His long-term bullish outlook is therefore still valid, but it is still unsafe to make specific short-term predictions.
