Ethereum’s price action has fallen far tiny of traders’ expectations over the past few months. Ethereum is currently trapped in a downtrendwhich has fallen 23% in price over 30 days. This decline contrasts sharply with the hopes of many ETH investors who were expecting a bullish rally after starting Ethereum Spot ETFs.

However, technical analysis suggests that Ethereum’s recent performance it’s not unusual in the case of cryptocurrency, as it appears to reflect a similar pattern observed in 2016.

Ethereum retains similarities to 2016 price movements

Despite the price concerns, a deeper look at Ethereum’s historical price action suggests that the current situation may not be as unfamiliar as it seems. According to an ongoing analysis by popular cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its 2016 performance when viewed on a monthly candlestick chart. This pattern of recurrence became even more apparent after the end of August 2024, when Ethereum closed on a bearish candlestick, mirroring the same result in August 2016.

In isolation, this probably wouldn’t mean anything. However, as Cowen pointed out, this pattern has been consistent throughout 2024, starting in January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed its monthly candles the same way it did in 2016 for eight months in a row. As such, this could give you an idea of ​​how Ethereum could fare for the rest of the year.

#ETH / #USD monthly candles still reflect 2016 perfectly.

If the situation repeats itself, it will suggest #ETH is green in September and red from October to December.

Then in 2025 #ETH turns green for a moment photo:twitter.com/G8WtDwQlWY

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024

In 2016, Ethereum finally saw a massive 19,000% rally that saw it reach $1,590 for the first time. If the pattern repeats itself like in 2016, investors can expect Ethereum to close in the green monthly close in September, followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this pattern of price action continues beyond December 2024, Ethereum will finally see a significant price rally above its current all-time high. This would propel ardent Ethereum bulls towards the much-needed profitability they have been seeking.

Road to $5,000?

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, down 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mirror the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum could last all the time rest of the year. However, not all hope is lost for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that could cause an upward rebound.

Ethereum price is trading at a key support level, specifically the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A significant rebound from this level could signal the beginning of an uptrend, leading to a close above the monthly open in slow September. An ETH rally above $3,000 to $4,000 and then $5,000 is still in the books.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com