- The EUR/USD pair settled near 1.1050 on a serene Monday.
- The start of the week on US markets was faint, with transaction volumes being low.
- There is a risk that this week’s key EU data will be overshadowed by the US NFP.
EUR/USD found a slender bid on Monday to start the recent trading week, finding traction near 1.1050 as Fiber looks to hold on to near-term gains. Markets started Monday on a noticeably slender volume profile, with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. The extended weekend will see US markets return to action on Tuesday just in time to look down the barrel of a massive calendar full of US jobs data for the rest of the week.
EU retail sales and gross domestic product (GDP) growth data will be released later in the week, on Thursday and Friday respectively. However, the biggest news of the trading week will be the US jobs list, starting with Wednesday’s JOLTS jobs for July, which are expected to hold steady at 8.1 million m/m.
Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change report for August is expected to rebound from 145k to 122k the previous month, but the key US jobs report this week will be Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August. The US is expected to deliver a solid 165k report compared to 114k the previous month, and special attention will be paid to the release data and any historical revisions as this is the last round of NFP employment data before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets on September 18 to deliver the hotly anticipated first salvo in a recent interest rate cut cycle.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
Fiber managed to carve out an intraday position on Monday, posting petite gains from the 1.1050 level after three consecutive days of trading. EUR/USD hit a 13-month high just above 1.1200 earlier last week, and a short-term correction in US dollar flows is seeing bids attempt to maintain bullish charts.
The pair continues to trade well above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0845. Despite remaining in a deep bullish position, the EUR/USD pair continues to face a deepening bearish trend as shorts pile up targets just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.
