The U.S. dollar posted modest gains Tuesday, holding near its near two-week high as investors’ attention turned to the upcoming U.S. jobs report, which is due later this week.
At 00:05 EST (04:05 GMT), the stock was up 0.10% to 101.67. The stock was down 0.12% to 1.1058.
The report, due out Friday, is expected to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a shift away from a focus on inflation toward preventing job losses.
There is now a 33% chance of a 50-basis-point cut this month, with a quarter-point cut fully expected. This is little change from last week, when the probability of a larger cut was 36%.
Markets had been expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a 25-basis-point cut already factored into expectations for several weeks. Dollar strength earlier reflected that sentiment as it hit its strongest level since Aug. 20, driven by a rise in long-term Treasury yields to their highest since mid-August.
The rise in yields came after inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve might opt for a smaller rate cut.
The resilience of the U.S. economy is further underscored by recent gross domestic product data, which suggests the Federal Reserve has room to moderate policy easing. Still, investors continue to bet on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut.
The results of the upcoming jobs report will likely have a significant impact on the dollar’s trajectory in the near future.
“Higher-than-expected wage data and a lower unemployment rate would likely provide markets with greater confidence that growth risks have subsided, paving the way for sustained high equity valuations and potential catch-up by some other markets/stocks,” Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.
