U.Today – September is considered one of the worst months for the cryptocurrency market, in particular. The average BTC yield is -6.18%, and the median is -4.43%. Historical trends are rarely reliable for cryptocurrencies, but considering the fact that Bitcoin is a $1.2 trillion asset with over 11 years of experience on the exchange, its price history can be relied on.
However, Spot On Chain experts refuse to accept that September will be a negative month and provide five main reasons why this time it might be different for BTC.
Funnily enough, one of the main arguments is based on historical patterns, which may not always be relevant. Thus, Spot On Chain indicates that almost 43% of years with negative Augusts were preceded by positive Septembers. This suggests that the market could rebound despite the usual negative sentiment.
Sellers leave, owners enter
Another significant factor is that key players have been selling less recently. The German government, Mt. Gox, and Genesis Trading have all sold a lot of Bitcoin, with their combined sales reaching over 170,000 BTC in July and August.
It’s also worth mentioning that the US government still holds over 203,000 BTC, but has been cautious in its recent moves, opting for over-the-counter sales that minimize market impact. This reduction in selling pressure could support keep the market stable.
Additionally, long-term holders remain sturdy, adding 262,000 BTC to their positions in August. These holders now control 75% of the total supply, signaling confidence in the asset’s future. Top anonymous wallets that hold significant amounts of Bitcoin also remained inactive, further reducing the likelihood of sudden sell-offs.
Expected Inflows to Bitcoin ETFs
There is also the possibility of a up-to-date wave of Bitcoin ETF investments, which strengthens the bullish scenario. After a compact decline in net flows in August, September could see positive inflows of between $500 million and $1.5 billion, based on historical patterns of alternating positive and negative months.
There are other factors that could affect the market as well. With the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates and FTX paying out $16 billion in cash, there could be more demand for Bitcoin. Additionally, growing political support for favorable cryptocurrency regulations in the US could boost investor confidence and give Bitcoin another boost in September.
