Sportswear retailers are hoping the double whammy of back-to-school and the fallout from the Olympics will revive sales after a feeble summer. After a feeble June and an equally feeble July, demand should pick up as summer winds down, providing enough momentum to for the second half of the year. However, data compiled by Bernstein Societe Generale suggests that the turning point that the sportswear industry had been expecting has not yet materialized.

The sportswear category includes footwear, apparel, and wearables, with apparel making up the largest segment, accounting for total revenue of $215 billion as of 2023 and expected to grow to nearly $300 billion by 2030, according to Statistica. North America dominates the segment with a market share of 45.6%, while APAC is the fastest-growing market with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% (compared to a CAGR of 9.6% in the U.S. and a CAGR of 9.9% in Europe).

While the competition is rapidly gaining popularity, Nike (NYSE: NO) is still the largest company in the industry, with worldwide revenues of $48 billion in fiscal year 2023, followed by German adidas with revenues of $21.4 billion.

Bernstein’s study takes a closer look at how the industry fared this summer in lithe of heightened consumer price sensitivity, exacerbated by persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S.

The study analyzed foot traffic, card data, web traffic, inventory levels, markdown width and depth, and app engagement to provide a comprehensive picture of whether any trends developed over the summer for major brands in the category, including Nike (NKE), Lululemon (LULU), On Holdings (ONON), and Under Armour (UA, UAA).

Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman found that traffic and spending trends continued to be sluggish in July for brands and retailers, with traffic and spending holding steady or sinking in July. Online traffic rose for Deckers Outdoor (DECK) and On Holdings (ONON), but fell for Under Armour (UA, UAA) and Skechers (SKX), which recently reported upbeat results for the quarter ending in June.

Inventories are returning to “healthier” levels, Sherman found, as sales through promotions are coming to an end, while SKUs are up for some brands, namely Nike (NKE), adidas, Lululemon (LULU), Puma, On (ONON), Hoka (DECK) and Skechers (SKX) due to novel launches and seasonal assortments. With the improved inventory comes fewer promotions, as most major retailers have seen a decline in promotions this summer, with the notable exception of Nike (NKE) due to franchise management efforts, according to Bernstein.

“The rebound we were hoping for in July has not yet occurred,” Sherman said, adding that “traffic and spending trends remained flat and in many cases even deteriorated slightly in July, with the continued exception of On and Hoka.”