For me, Aviva (LSE:AV) shares are the ones that left. After adding Legal and General Group AND Phoenix Group Holdings to my portfolio, I decided I had enough exposure, FTSE100 insurers and opposed the purchase of a third one.

I chose badly. Over the past year, Aviva’s share price has risen by 21.41%. Legal & General has fallen by 4.18% and Phoenix by 3.17%.

To some extent, it doesn’t matter. I buy stocks with a long-term perspective. I don’t judge their success over periods as miniature as 12 months.

FTSE 100 Income Star

However, Aviva is the uncomplicated winner over the three-year period as well. In that time it is up 33.95%, while Legal & General is down 9.46% and Phoenix is ​​down 19.19%.

It’s a bit strange. They’re all in the same industry, they’re all high-profit, they’re all cheap-looking. But Aviva cracked it, and the others didn’t.

If I had bought Aviva three years ago, when I first thought about it, I would now be sitting on a very comfortable total return of around 55%, with dividends reinvested. That would turn a £5,000 investment into around £7,750.

So much for the performance so far. What really matters is where Aviva goes next – and whether I should buy it today.

Currently, the company’s shares are trading at 11.2 times forward earnings, meaning they are no longer as economical as they once were, and the price-to-earnings ratio has risen sharply over the past year, as the chart below shows.

^{Chart by TradingView}

However, Aviva is still cheaper than Legal & General, which trades at 30.87 times earnings, and Phoenix, which trades at 16.35 times earnings.

Good value

Dividend yields continue to be a killer. Since the pandemic, yields have steadily climbed to 7.68%, as this chart shows.

^{Chart by TradingView}

It may trail Legal & General at 8.86% and Phoenix, which pays a blockbuster 9.73%. However, that is largely due to the fall in its share price. Markets see Aviva’s yield as sustainable, with a forecast of 7.97% in 2025. The board also considered it could give the green lithe to a modest £300m share buyback.

I worry that Aviva’s dividend coverage will fall to just 1.1 times earnings. That’s pretty low. Free cash flow is also falling, as this chart shows.

^{Chart by TradingView}

Aviva has enjoyed a robust start to 2024, with general insurance premiums up 16% year-on-year in Q1 to £2.7bn, helped by robust rate discipline and up-to-date business. Insurance and health sales rose 5%, while net wealth flows rose 15%.

Like all the high-yielding FTSE 100 insurers, Aviva’s dividend will look even more attractive when interest rates are finally cut. That could also lithe a fire in stock markets generally, adding to the hundreds of billions of pounds insurers have to cover their liabilities.

But you know what? I’m not adding Aviva to my portfolio today. It’s uncommon for a stock to do this well. I have enough exposure to the insurance sector and I don’t think it offers enough excitement to seriously overweight. Instead, I’ll cross my fingers and hope my two sector laggards catch up. It’s high time they did.