In the forecast shared via YouTube videoJoe Burnett, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Unchained Capital, makes a robust case for Bitcoin reaching $750,000. According to Burnett, the market may be significantly underestimating Bitcoin’s potential in this cycle, often losing sight of its broader context in the global financial ecosystem.
Why Bitcoin Could Rise to $750,000
Burnett begins by addressing a common oversight in market analysis that tends to compare Bitcoin’s current cycle to historical performance, failing to take into account its evolving market context. “I think it’s possible that a lot of people are underestimating Bitcoin in this cycle,” Burnett said, emphasizing the need to view Bitcoin through the lens of its relative position in total global wealth.
A key part of Burnett’s argument is Rational Root’s HODL model, which he discussed extensively on the podcast “What Bitcoin Did.” The model points to a critical turnaround in 2020, coinciding with the third bitcoin halving — an event that reduces the number of up-to-date bitcoins generated and awarded to miners for verifying transactions.
Burnett explains: “This model is fascinating because it shows a logical turning point that occurred in 2020 around the third halving. It highlights that illiquid supply as a percentage of total supply has been at an all-time low and has been slowly increasing since then,” he says, reflecting a shift toward Bitcoin increasingly being held by long-term holders rather than circulating with miners and speculators.
Burnett argues that after 2020, Bitcoin entered a up-to-date phase characterized by a decreasing supply of liquid coins. “Up until the third halving, Bitcoin was in the process of distributing coins via proof-of-work mining; by 2020, almost 90% of all coins had been mined,” he explains. The subsequent reduction in up-to-date coin generation after the halving resulted in a gradual transition from a free-floating supply to a more tightly held resource.
Burnett’s forecast also uses comparative analysis with gold, traditionally seen as a solid store of value. He challenges this notion by highlighting the flaws in gold’s economic mechanics, particularly its 1% to 2% annual supply raise, which introduces constant selling pressure. “Gold has a negative feedback loop, given that it’s not as scarce as Bitcoin. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new gold are being mined per year,” Burnett points out, arguing that this reduces gold’s appeal as an investment.
On the other hand, he describes bitcoin halving events as a “positive feedback loop,” in which the drop in up-to-date supply every four years inherently drives up prices, spurring up-to-date waves of adoption. “The amount of new bitcoin mined is halved. This repeats until no newly issued bitcoin is mined,” he adds, suggesting a built-in scarcity that amplifies its value over time.
Zooming out to a global scale, Burnett is referring to nearly a quadrillion in global wealth, of which Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is a mere fraction. He argues that Bitcoin’s market share is poised for significant expansion, potentially capturing a significant portion of global wealth.
This is in stark contrast to the more conservative expectations of various pundits, who barely predict Bitcoin will break $100,000 in the near future. “With all this in mind, the ‘diminishing returns’ theory could very easily be flawed. We live in a world where total global wealth is almost $1 quadrillion, and Bitcoin is 0.1% of that,” Burnett says.
He ends with a quote from Michael Saylor: “All your models will be broken,” and adds, “anything less than the size of gold is ridiculously early. Gold parity is currently around $750,000 per Bitcoin, which means the size of the Bitcoin market has just reached the size of the gold market.”
At the time of going to press, the price of BTC was
Featured image created with DALL E, chart from TradingView.com
