After falling to $53,600 last Friday, Bitcoin price has seen a significant recovery over the weekend, breaking through the $63,000 mark today. This represents a massive 17% escalate since last Friday, reaching this level for the first time in two weeks. The rally can be attributed to several factors that have combined to drive the price of the premier cryptocurrency higher.
#1 “Trump’s Bitcoin Pump”
The resurgence in Bitcoin price coincided with an assassination attempt on former President and 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump. The incident significantly affected his chances in the upcoming election, with betting market Polymarket currently predicting a 70% probability of his victory.
Cryptocurrency expert Will Clemente III highlighted in X that “Trump’s chances of winning in November are skyrocketing in prediction markets.” recorded“Given Bitcoin’s reaction so far, it looks like markets will start pricing in a total Trump victory.”
Alex Krüger, macroeconomic analyst, developed on the implications of a potential Trump presidency for financial markets: “Trade Trump is on its way. Here’s what a Trump win or expectation of a win means: Bullish on Crypto as the Trump administration may push for supportive regulation of cryptocurrencies that will foster innovation and adoption.”
#2 German Sales Exhausted
The recent end to a large-scale Bitcoin sell-off by the German government also contributed to the price recovery. Germany depleted the 50,000 BTC it had seized from Movie2k, ending its last transaction at 3,846.05 BTC last Friday.
James “Checkmate” Check, Leading On-Chain Analyst, he noticed on the incredible price strength of BTC on X, “Guys, Bitcoin just absorbed a 50k BTC market sell order in a matter of weeks. It went down ~25%, in a very structured and orderly correction. The last time this happened, LUNA sold ~$80k BTC and the price went from $46k to $25k and then $17k shortly thereafter. This is not the same.”
#3 DXY shows weakness
The weakening US dollar is likely another driver of BTC’s recent gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has fallen 1.8% over the past two weeks to a five-week low of 104.
Expectations of a rate cut and a rising U.S. budget deficit, which hit $1.27 trillion year-to-date in June, have pushed the dollar lower, prompting investors to turn to riskier assets like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
#4 The End of Bitcoin Miners’ Surrender
Joe Burnett, another well-known cryptocurrency analyst, illuminated via X yesterday that the month-long capitulation period for Bitcoin miners is coming to an end, indicating a potential reversal of downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Historically, the end of miner capitulations has been associated with subsequent price increases.
#5 Technical Breakthrough
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin crossed above the critical 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a descending trendline this Saturday. This milestone can be seen as a bullish signal among traders, indicating a possible end to the recession that began in early June.
At the time of going to press, the BTC price was $63,105.
Featured image created with DALL E, chart from TradingView.com
