According to a report in The Wall Street Journal this week, most economists predict that inflation, deficits and interest rates will be higher under a second Trump administration than if Biden remained in the White House.

Citing a quarterly survey of forecasters conducted between July 5 and 9, The Wall Street Journal reported that it received responses from 68 professional forecasters from business, Wall Street and academia.

“Of the 50 people who responded to the questions about Trump and Biden, 56% said inflation would be higher under a Trump term than under a Biden term,” the WSJ reported. That compares with 16% who said the opposite, and the rest saw no significant difference.

The publication explains that economists’ views on inflation and interest rates appear to be largely driven by Trump’s policy preferences, particularly on trade and immigration.

However, they note that “these ratings are unlikely to change significantly under another Democratic candidate.”

Analysts at the Economic Outlook Group told the Wall Street Journal there is a real risk that inflation will accelerate again under the Trump administration.

The Wall Street Journal adds that economists predict that on average, U.S. gross domestic product will grow by 1.7% this year after the latest inflation data is released, compared with 3.1% in 2023 (based on a year-on-year fourth-quarter comparison).

They further say the unemployment rate is projected to remain just above 4% until 2026, with the number of jobs expected to grow by about 131,000 per month over the next year.

Economists on average estimate a 28% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. The WSJ reports that the forecast has changed little since the last survey in April.