Street Talk of the Week: Stifel Launches Tesla; Alphabet Downgrade

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Investing.com – Here’s a professional summary of the most vital conclusions from Wall Street analysts from the last week.

InvestingPro subscribers are always the first to know about market-moving rating changes.

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What happened? Goldman Sachs on Monday began coverage of Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:) shares with a recent analyst recommending a buy and a $42 price target.

What’s the whole story? Goldman considers AFRM a leader in delivering contemporary consumer credit solutions, with a diverse range of products tailored to point-of-sale financing and everyday spending. Analysts are particularly impressed by AFRM’s underwriting sophistication compared to its fintech peers, as well as the company’s consistent delivery of well-managed credit outcomes, even in the face of rapid growth that outpaces its competitors. This success is attributed to AFRM’s approach to short-term receivables and transaction-level underwriting, which allows the company to individually assess and underwrite a variety of consumer spending types. These include everyday purchases (“Pay Now” via direct debit), cash flow management or short-term financing (such as Pay-in-4), and more extensive installment financing options (six to 12 months or longer), all through a single product on a single card—the Affirm Debit+ card.

Unlike classic card issuers, which have historically offered a single revolving line of credit to cover these needs, the AFRM method has significantly lower costs for the consumer and reduces credit risk for the lender by avoiding enormous open balances for purchase. Goldman believes that AFRM’s precise credit coverage gives it a competitive advantage, enabling the company to delve deeper into the credit spectrum and enter the subprime/near-prime market – a complex area for many established players to engage in on a sustainable basis. Analysts predict that this precision in credit coverage will strengthen AFRM’s position in the market and facilitate its continued growth and success.

Buy at Goldman means “Analysts recommend stocks as buys or sells for placement on various regional investment watchlists. The assignment of a call or put option on an investment watchlist depends on the stock’s total return potential relative to its coverage range.”

How did the stock react? Affirm Holdings opened the session at a regular price of $31.02 and closed at $33.70, marking a 12.82% raise from the previous day’s regular close.

Penn Entertainment

What happened? On Tuesday, Raymond James downgraded PENN Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:) to Market Perform and removed its $20 price target.

What’s the full story? The change in recommendation follows a 21% raise in the company’s share price since May 20, driven by pressure from activists and rumors of mergers and acquisitions. Initially, when coverage began, Raymond James assumed the stock’s potential was constrained to around $20 per share. This ceiling was due to ongoing interactive segment discounts and a “penalty” status that would remain in place until a clearer path to profitability in the interactive space was established or a significant strategic change occurred.

However, the path to profitability in the digital space for PENN remains unclear, with no significant changes in strategy in sight, such as an outright sale of the company. As such, Raymond James advises investors to leverage recent gains and seek out more risk-adjusted investment opportunities in the sector. The brokerage firm rates Caesars (NASDAQ:) as its preferred pick, suggesting that it offers a more attractive investment profile compared to PENN in the current market environment.

Raymond James’ assessment reflects a cautious stance on PENN’s near-term outlook, emphasizing the need for clarity on its digital strategy and profitability prospects.

Market Perform at Raymond James means: “The security is expected to perform broadly in line with the S&P 500 Index over the next 12 months and could potentially be used as a source of funds for higher-rated securities.”

How did the stock react? Penn Entertainment opened the regular session at $18.85 and closed the session at $18.26, an raise of 5.58% from the previous day’s regular close.

Tesla

What happened? On Wednesday (actually Tuesday after hours), Stifel started monitoring Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:) shares at a Buy price with a price target of $265.

What’s the whole story? Stifel believes TSLA is very well positioned to deliver solid multi-year growth in 2025-27+. In the near future, the facelifted Model 3 and upcoming Model Y refresh should boost sales, followed by the start of production of the next-generation vehicle (Model 2), which will likely generate very sturdy demand. Stifel analysts also believe that TSLA’s AI-powered full autonomous driving initiative has the potential to generate significant value through FSD sales, possible licensing deals, and as a key driver of long-term RoboTaxi initiatives.

Notable near-term risks include supply levels following feeble 1Q24 results, as well as near-term headwinds related to EV adoption and the US election. Stifel initiates coverage with a Buy and a $265 price target.

A buy at Stifel means: “We expect a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the total return equal to the percentage change in price plus the dividend yield.”

How did the stock react? Tesla opened the regular session at $186.69 and closed the session at $196.37, representing a 4.81% raise from the previous day’s regular close.

Qiagen

What happened? On Thursday, Wolfe Research upgraded Qiagen (NYSE:) shares to Outperform and set a $50 price target.

What’s the whole story? Wolfe Research expressed greater confidence in QGEN’s prospects following the company’s compelling presentation at Corporate Management Day (CMD) on June 17. The brokerage is hopeful about QGEN’s ability to outperform competitors in the coming year as management has presented a credible strategy to achieve over 7% organic growth and operating margins over 31% over 2024-2028.

The current portfolio is particularly attractive due to its high percentage of recurring revenue, approximately 85%, along with several medium-term growth catalysts and sturdy market positioning. Additionally, Wolfe Research anticipates that QGEN’s latent-TB segment will remain unchallenged by recent competitors in the near future and trusts the company’s disciplined execution, as proven by initiatives such as NeuMoDx.

Despite these positive indicators, QGEN stock is currently trading at just under 20x its forward P/E, which is a discount of over 5x to its peers. This valuation leads Wolfe Research to believe that the stock is undervalued, presenting an attractive investment opportunity with constrained downside risk. In featherlight of this assessment, the brokerage has decided to revise its estimates for 2025 and beyond, reflecting a stronger belief in QGEN’s trajectory toward increased growth and profitability.

Wolfe Research analysis suggests QGEN is well-positioned for future success, and the company’s current share price provides a favorable entry point for investors.

Outperforming at Wolfe means: “Security is expected to outperform the analyst’s industry range over the next 12 months.”

How did the stock react? Qiagen opened the session at a regular price of $41.02 and closed at $41.10, an raise of 1.02% from the previous day’s regular close.

Alphabet

What happened? On Friday, Rosenblatt downgraded Alphabet (NASDAQ:) to neutral with a price target of $181.

What’s the whole story? Rosenblatt downgraded Alphabet to Neutral, citing several areas of transition risk that require careful monitoring. Key concerns include the potential impact of AI on search functionality, in particular the introduction of AI reviews that could temporarily disrupt search advertising revenues. Additionally, there are signs of emerging competition from Bing that could potentially lead to a loss of search market share. Moreover, the shift in search advertising revenue towards retail media networks, driven by Amazon (NASDAQ:) and other entrants into this space, is expected to accelerate, creating further uncertainties.

Another vital factor is Amazon’s aggressive expansion into the video ad market, including ad integration into Prime Video and a tough upfront sales strategy that could change ad sales dynamics, particularly impacting Alphabet’s YouTube platform. The research team also highlights the possibility of increased capital expenditure (capex) on AI, driven by competitive pressures in the industry.

In featherlight of these transitional risks, Rosenblatt suggests a cautious approach to Alphabet until a clearer outcome emerges. Monitoring how Alphabet navigates these challenges will be key to reassessing its investment prospects going forward.

For Rosenblatt, a neutral rating means: “We believe this company’s stock will perform in line with the average return of peers in the industry over the next 12 months.”

How did the stock react? Alphabet opened the regular session at $184.17 and closed at $182.15, down 1.76% from the previous day’s regular close.

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