A Labor victory in the general election would be positive for British shares, says JP Morgan

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According to the Wall Street giant, British shares have fallen by a total of 2% since 1970 in the month after Labor’s victory JP Morgan.

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However, on June 10, the bank said the timing could be different if Labor wins the July 4 general election. “We believe that a Labor victory this time will likely be seen as positive for UK markets. The current Labor Party has a much more centrist political program

Party policy would probably be “moderately pro-growth, but above all with a probably cautious fiscal approach“.

The note lists sectors of the stock market that could benefit from a Labor majority, assuming it happens, which seems likely but is still not guaranteed.

Sectors

In tiny, JP Morgan believes that supermarkets, banks and construction companies would benefit from this change.

He says continued focus on the cost of living crisis would be a positive for food retailers. The banking sector would benefit from “policy stability”, especially since the Labor Party does not plan to heavily tax bank profits.

Meanwhile, a focus on affordable housing, making land available for development and reforms to the planning system could improve prospects for housebuilders.

Overall, JP Morgan favors mid-cap stocks FTSE250 an index that is more closely linked to the British economy than the international one FTSE100.

Stocks worth considering

With this in mind, what stocks are worth considering?

Well, a FTSE 250 housebuilder Wistry Group (LSE:VTY) has just been promoted to the index of the largest companies, where it will sit among larger developers, including: Barratt’s development AND Taylor Wimpey.

Stocks have defied the doom and gloom surrounding higher interest rates and the housing market. It has increased by 58% in the last six months!

Still, the valuation doesn’t look particularly stretched at 13.8 times projected 2024 earnings.

Last year the company announced it would focus on selling affordable homes to organizations such as local authorities and housing associations rather than to private owner-occupiers on the open market.

It’s more like A “rapid growth and low asset utilization” an operating model centered around high-quality partnerships.

These include private equity in build-to-let space. House rents in the UK are currently rising at their fastest rate ever. A growing population and a chronic shortage of available housing should keep rents high.

Dividend forecasts also look attractive.

YEAR DIVIDEND PER SHARE DIVIDEND
2024 51.3 pp 4.1%
2025 70.6p 5.7%
2026 80.2p 6.4%

Of course, higher interest rates continue to pose challenges for all homebuilders. We don’t know when rates will start to drop. This is worth remembering.

Encouragingly, however, Vistry announced in May that it was on track to deliver over 18,000 facilities in FY24, an increase of over 10% over FY23.

As it stands, I don’t have any home builders in my portfolio. Vistra shares are worth considering.

Long-term investing

Investors shouldn’t buy stocks based solely on what they think the election outcome will be.

Instead, it is worth focusing more on the company’s long-term fundamentals, such as its financial health, competitive position, growth prospects and management quality.

This provides a more reliable basis for making investment decisions, rather than having to worry about who is in Downing Street or the White House.

Companies with powerful fundamentals offer investors greater potential for better returns in the long run.

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