Forecasts for the week ahead: Fedspeak and FOMC minutes should guide sentiment

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The dollar continued to depreciate and fell to multi-week lows on rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, which was further reinforced by lower US CPI data in April

The dollar lagged and brought the USD Index (DXY) to the 104.00 zone with an equally downward move in US yields. Weekly mortgage applications, home sales updates and FOMC minutes will be filed on May 22. Regular weekly unemployment claims, the Chicago Fed’s domestic activity index, up-to-date home sales and flash PMIs for manufacturing and services will be released on May 23, while robust goods orders and robust goods orders will be the final assessment of consumer sentiment in Michigan is expected on May 24.

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EUR/USD continued its positive upward trend, strengthening for the fifth week in a row and flirting with the key barrier of 1.0900. The publication of producer prices in Germany will take place on May 20, while the EMU trade balance will take place on May 21. On May 23, advanced PMI indicators for industry and services in Germany and the euro bloc will be presented, as well as a preliminary indicator of consumer confidence in the euro zone. On May 24, we will know the final GDP growth rate in Germany for the first quarter.

GBP/USD extended its march north above the 1.2700 level for the first time since mid-March. In the UK register, CBI orders on industrial trends are due to be issued on May 21, with a completion date of May 22 – inflation rate and public sector net debt. Preliminary PMIs for industry and services will be published on May 23, while GfK’s retail sales and consumer confidence will be published on May 24.

The USD/JPY pair was volatile, ultimately ending the week with marginal losses around 155.50. The release of the tertiary services index is on May 20 ahead of the Reuters Tankan Index, trade balance and machinery orders, which are all expected on May 22. On May 23, the weekly publication of foreign bond investment indices and preliminary PMI indicators for industry and services of Jibun Bank will take place. The inflation rate will end the week on May 24.

AUD/USD resumed its upward trend and ended the week with significant gains, finally breaking the key barrier of 0.6700. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and the RBA Minutes will be published on May 21. Judo Bank’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs will be released on May 23, along with consumer inflation expectations.

Anticipating the economic outlook: voices on the horizon

  • Fed’s Powell speaks on May 19.
  • The Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Waller and Jefferson will speak on May 20, along with the BoE’s Broadbent.
  • The Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Williams, Waller and Barr will speak on May 21. In addition, Lagarde from the ECB, Bailey from the BoE and US Treasury Secretary Yellen will also speak.
  • Fed’s Bostic, Collins and Mester speak on May 22 with support from BoE’s Breeden.
  • Fed Bostic and BoE Pill statements will take place on May 23.
  • Waller of the Fed and Jordan of the SNB speak on May 24.

Central banks: upcoming meetings to shape monetary policy

  • The PBoC meeting will be held on May 20.
  • The Hungarian Central Bank (NBH) will meet in May
  • Bank Indonesia (BI) will meet on May 22 together with the RBNZ.
  • The meeting between Bank of Korea (BoK) and CBRT will be held on May 23.
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